Understanding and Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change with the Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (TIPS)

Abstract The current version of the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS) used operationally at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to provide 12-hourly tropical cyclone intensity guidance through day 5 is documented. STIPS is a multiple linear regression model. It was developed using a “perfect prog” assumption and has a statistical–dynamical framework, which utilizes environmental information obtained from Navy Operational Global Analysis and Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and the JTWC historical best track for development. NOGAPS forecast fields are used in real time. A separate version of the model (decay-STIPS) is produced that accounts for the effects of landfall by using an empirical inland decay model. Despite their simplicity, STIPS and decay-STIPS produce skillful intensity forecasts through 4 days, based on a 48-storm verification (July 2003–October 2004). Details of this model’s development and operational performance are presented.

Download Full-text

Passive-Microwave-Enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf941.1 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 21 (4) ◽

pp. 613-635 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Thomas A. Jones ◽

Daniel Cecil ◽

Mark DeMaria

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

North Pacific ◽

Passive Microwave ◽

Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽

Hurricane Intensity ◽

Cyclone Intensity ◽

Intensity Prediction ◽

Prediction Scheme

Abstract The formulation and testing of an enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) using new predictors derived from passive microwave imagery is presented. Passive microwave imagery is acquired for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins between 1995 and 2003. Predictors relating to the inner-core (within 100 km of center) precipitation and convective characteristics of tropical cyclones are derived. These predictors are combined with the climatological and environmental predictors used by SHIPS in a simple linear regression model with change in tropical cyclone intensity as the predictand. Separate linear regression models are produced for forecast intervals of 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 h from the time of a microwave sensor overpass. Analysis of the resulting models indicates that microwave predictors, which provide an intensification signal to the model when above-average precipitation and convective signatures are present, have comparable importance to vertical wind shear and SST-related predictors. The addition of the microwave predictors produces a 2%–8% improvement in performance for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecasts out to 72 h when compared with an environmental-only model trained from the same sample. Improvement is also observed when compared against the current version of SHIPS. The improvement in both basins is greatest for substantially intensifying or weakening tropical cyclones. Improvement statistics are based on calculating the forecast error for each tropical cyclone while it is held out of the training sample to approximate the use of independent data.

Download Full-text

A prediction scheme with genetic neural network and Isomap algorithm for tropical cyclone intensity change over western North Pacific

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics ◽

10.1007/s00703-013-0263-7 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 121 (3-4) ◽

pp. 143-152 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Ying Huang ◽

Long Jin

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Tropical Cyclone ◽

North Pacific ◽

Western North Pacific ◽

Intensity Change ◽

Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽

Cyclone Intensity ◽

Prediction Scheme ◽

Genetic Neural Network

Download Full-text

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change: Simulation and Analysis.

10.21236/ada329860 ◽

1997 ◽

Author(s):

Jenni L. Evans

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Intensity Change ◽

Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽

Cyclone Intensity

Download Full-text

A View of Tropical Cyclones from Above: The Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-16-0055.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 98 (10) ◽

pp. 2113-2134 ◽

Cited By ~ 43

Author(s):

James D. Doyle ◽

Jonathan R. Moskaitis ◽

Joel W. Feldmeier ◽

Ronald J. Ferek ◽

Mark Beaubien ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Lower Stratosphere ◽

Inner Core ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Intensity Change ◽

Naval Research ◽

Atmospheric Conditions ◽

Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽

High Definition ◽

Cyclone Intensity

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) outflow and its relationship to TC intensity change and structure were investigated in the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field program during 2015 using dropsondes deployed from the innovative new High-Definition Sounding System (HDSS) and remotely sensed observations from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), both on board the NASA WB-57 that flew in the lower stratosphere. Three noteworthy hurricanes were intensively observed with unprecedented horizontal resolution: Joaquin in the Atlantic and Marty and Patricia in the eastern North Pacific. Nearly 800 dropsondes were deployed from the WB-57 flight level of ∼60,000 ft (∼18 km), recording atmospheric conditions from the lower stratosphere to the surface, while HIRAD measured the surface winds in a 50-km-wide swath with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. Dropsonde transects with 4–10-km spacing through the inner cores of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty depict the large horizontal and vertical gradients in winds and thermodynamic properties. An innovative technique utilizing GPS positions of the HDSS reveals the vortex tilt in detail not possible before. In four TCI flights over Joaquin, systematic measurements of a major hurricane’s outflow layer were made at high spatial resolution for the first time. Dropsondes deployed at 4-km intervals as the WB-57 flew over the center of Hurricane Patricia reveal in unprecedented detail the inner-core structure and upper-tropospheric outflow associated with this historic hurricane. Analyses and numerical modeling studies are in progress to understand and predict the complex factors that influenced Joaquin’s and Patricia’s unusual intensity changes.

Download Full-text

Precipitation Properties Observed during Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-15-0065.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 143 (11) ◽

pp. 4476-4492 ◽

Cited By ~ 45

Author(s):

George R. Alvey III ◽

Jonathan Zawislak ◽

Edward Zipser

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Passive Microwave ◽

Intensity Change ◽

Rapid Intensification ◽

Relative Importance ◽

Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽

Cyclone Intensity ◽

East Pacific ◽

Intensity Changes ◽

Strong Convection

Abstract Using a 15-yr (1998–2012) multiplatform dataset of passive microwave satellite data [tropical cyclone–passive microwave (TC-PMW)] for Atlantic and east Pacific storms, this study examines the relative importance of various precipitation properties, specifically convective intensity, symmetry, and area, to the spectrum of intensity changes observed in tropical cyclones. Analyses are presented not only spatially in shear-relative quadrants around the center, but also every 6 h during a 42-h period encompassing 18 h prior to onset of intensification to 24 h after. Compared to those with slower intensification rates, storms with higher intensification rates (including rapid intensification) have more symmetric distributions of precipitation prior to onset of intensification, as well as a greater overall areal coverage of precipitation. The rate of symmetrization prior to, and during, intensification increases with increasing intensity change as rapidly intensifying storms are more symmetric than slowly intensifying storms. While results also clearly show important contributions from strong convection, it is concluded that intensification is more closely related to the evolution of the areal, radial, and symmetric distribution of precipitation that is not necessarily intense.

Download Full-text